The rise and spread with the acceleration

The rise and spread with the acceleration

In keeping with its name, the model «The rise and spread with acceleration» (BARR) is turning the model, which is formed after the excessive demand drops the price too far and too fast up. Designed by Thomas Balkovskim, the model was introduced in 1997. in the June issue of the magazine «The technical analysis of stock and commodity markets», and also included in his recently published book «Encyclopedia of graphical models».
The original model was called «The rise and accelerate the formation», or BARF. Balkovsky decided that «Wall Street» was not ready for such a term, and changed its name to «The rise and spread with acceleration». Balkovsky identified three main stages of the model: the introductory phase, burst and acceleration. Let's look at these stages and also look at the volume and reliability of the model.

1. Introductory phase: the first model is the introduction stage, which may last for 1 month or longer (for full-time schedule), and forms the base from which the trend line. During this stage, prices are rising in the usual manner, and there is no excessive acceleration. Trend line should be moderately steep. If it is too steep, then the next surge is unlikely to be quite substantial. If the trend line is not steep enough, the subsequent trend line break will occur too late. Balkovsky finds that the angle of 30-45 degrees is preferred. The value of the angle will depend on the scale (scale semi-log or arithmetic), and scale graphic. It may be easier to judge the reliability of trend lines, based on visual assessment.

2. Stage surge: a surge in acute increases, and prices are moving far away from the trend line of the opening stage. Ideally, the trend line of increasing the angle of the burst phase should be approximately 50% higher than the trend line of the opening angle of the stage. Roughly speaking, this requires an angle of 45 to 60 degrees. If it is not possible to measure the angles, the visual evaluation is quite satisfactory.

3. Reliability surge: It is important that the burst represents azhiotazhny speculative demand, which can not be supported for a long time. Balkovsky has developed what he called the «arbitrary» measurement technique to confirm the level of speculation during the burst. Distance from the highest peak stage of the burst before the opening stage of trend lines should be at least twice as much distance from the highest peak in the opening stages before its trend line. These distances can be measured by conducting a vertical line from the highest highs to the trend line of the opening stage. (See example below)

4. Turn surge: After azhiotazhny speculative demand decreases, prices are beginning to reach the peak, and a vertex. Sometimes there is a small double peak or a series of descending peaks. Prices begin to fall to the trend line of the opening stage, and a right-hand side of the burst.

5. Volume: In the market-based instruments increases during introductory phase, the volume is usually the middle and sometimes lower. When the speculative demand is beginning to shape the left side of the burst, the volume increases, because the increase is accelerating.

6. Stage acceleration: acceleration phase begins when the model overflows support trend line opening stage. Prices will fluctuate, or sometimes jump from the trend line before the break through it. Once breakthrough occurs, accelerating the phase comes to their rights and the reduction continues.

7. Supporting turns into resistance: After the trend line is broken, sometimes it is the restoration, which tests the level of resistance to chicken. The potential level of support, in turning resistance, may also be determined on the basis of corrective minima during the burst phase.
Model «The rise and spread with acceleration» can be applied to daily, weekly or monthly schedule. As stated above, the model is designed to identify speculative azhiotazhnoe increase, which is not viable over the long term. Since the price increase is very rapid in order to form the left side of the burst, the subsequent decline may be as rapid.

The graph «Level Three Communications» formed model «The rise and spread with acceleration» after prices rose in the speculative boom in early 2000. Prices have increased from 72 to 132 for 2 months, and this increase will eventually be viable.

• The opening stage of formation of 3-month period from the beginning of October, 99g. until early January 2000. Volume during this stage was relatively low and actually declined during the November-December improve.

• trend line rising from a minimum of an introductory stage, has formed an angle of 34 degrees. Visual assessment also shows that the trend line is neither too steep nor too flat.

• Stage surge began in early January, when the rise expedited with a large increase in volume. Conservative held trend line is formed the angle of 51 degrees, which was exactly 50% higher than the trend line of the opening angle of the stage.

• Distance from the highest peak before the opening stage of trend lines is equal to 13. Distance from the highest peak stage of the burst to trend line 38 is equal to the introductory stage. This is almost three times as much, and confirms the excessive speculative demand during the burst.

• After reaching a maximum of approximately 132, the prices dropped sharply and cannon from the trend line of the opening stage. The lower maximum was formed by about 115 (red arrow) and the trend line was soon broken.

• Reducing the trend continued after the break through and reached the 67 mark before the rally began remedial. Corrective rally lasted until about a horizontal line of support at around 95, before prices fall back to the new minimum.